When you watch the national news, it is very confusing. You will hear that the market's going down, the market's going up, the interest rates are going up, the interest rates are going down, and that's all true. It does change all the time and up and down are the new normal. We tend to look at these larger pictures and then we apply them to a smaller area, which would be ours. But I will caution you not to do that.

I found a website and I was using it during the pandemic because I really wanted to understand who was coming here and where people were moving. You might have already been on it. It's called How Money walk, http://howmoneywalks.com. Click on data and then look at the map and go to California and go to Santa Cruz. And you will see we have gained people and money since 2020 $1.9964 million in an annual AGI, which is adjusted gross income, it changes every day, and it is based on IRS statistics.

It maybe explains why our prices didn't go down as much as they predicted. It can explain why some houses are going over and multiple offers. If you are a seller, check out the market where you're going.

Markets change and I work with buyers and sellers all year long, but when the actual transaction takes place, we are in a different market than where we started. We wake up to a new market every day and I've been getting better at really coaching sellers going, “look, this is what we're going to list it for today, but by the time we get your house ready and get on the market, it might be a different price that you're going to want to go on at, to make sure you get the right buyer.

Now, if you're a buyer, same thing. If you start today and you see there are a lot of houses that went for less and think “I'm going to get a deal” But you're not seeing anything that you like two, three months down the road, you're, you are still thinking of the price where you started. And that lower price point doesn't mean that's the market you're in. It changes every single day. Last week interest rates were about 6.26% and I think they jumped up a little bit this week, and I know that the market has had a rocky start this week.

For how money walks. Go check out that website so you can see where people are coming from. Mostly from right here in California, from north and south to Santa Cruz. We get the most wealth from Santa Clara, no surprise there. Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Alameda and San Mateo. We lose wealth to Monterey people move down south a little bit. San Benito County and South Placer County, Washoe County, Nevada, and Nevada County. I actually know a lot of friends that have moved up there, which I think is really interesting. And when you check out this website, when you kind of get an idea of where people are going, that also gives you an idea of what the pricing might be like when you go there. I think it's a great tool.

Know this trick because the market changes so much. If you are writing an offer on a property and you counter that price higher, make sure you go back to the lender. You make sure you can afford that higher price and get a new pre-qualification letter or a new letter from underwriting stating you can in fact get that loan and they're promising it to you.

I believe we're seeing the tail end of the drop from high, high interest rates at the beginning of the year and the end of last year. Depressed inventory still had some over asking price sales, but demand was down. And then, you know, we had a few disasters, which isn't great for the real estate market, right? We had the floods, we had the issues up in the valley, the roads were out, power was out. We had torrential rains. I mean we just had a lot of issues.

 The sun is out, spring is here. I imagine that the market's going to pick up. And as I've been telling everybody, I still think May is going to be the month this year. I really do. I still think that buyer and seller in this market, understand that when the market gets going and there's more inventory, that doesn't mean that the price will go down in the spring because these benchmarks of pricing, get set and then people want it, they bid over and that drags the market up. I am not a fortune teller so I cannot tell you for sure this is what's going to happen, but I have an idea that's what's going to happen and then buyers are going to come back into the market.

I think interest rates are going to tamp down just a little bit.

Remember market price is where buyer and seller meet. Not a website, Zillow or this equity tracker I hope to talk with you soon. See below for the link for the equity tracker and try it out!

Posted by Michele Replogle on


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